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Steve Saretsky -

Breakdown of the Single Family Housing Market in September So what exactly happened with the detached housing market in September? Bare with me as I write this report from my hotel in Mexico. I’m currently on a one week sabbatical, I had to upgrade the wifi just to get speeds even remotely close to back home. Disclaimer, no tequila was consumed during this analysis. The Vancouver real estate market is incredibly volatile right now. With new policies being announced on almost a weekly basis, such as the empty homes tax, and the new policies around Airbnb. As the market continues to change on essentially a weekly basis, it’s critical you take all stats with a grain of salt. Numbers can be up one week, and down another. What’s critical is that you look for the trends. I discussed this in my post What is Happening to Sales Prices in Vancouver? Although detached numbers look rather grim, they have rebounded since my early report September Sales On Pace for Record Lows. However, I wouldn’t write that post off, the stats below for months end are not much better. Sales September Sales Vancouver East- 67 Vancouver West- 61 Richmond 79 Burnaby 58 REBGV-

Steve Saretsky -

Are Prices up or Down in Vancouver? It’s all anybody really wants to know, are real estate prices up or down? We already know sales are dropping significantly as I discussed in Analyzing Sales Drops Across The Board.  I think it should give you a pretty good idea where the market is heading when sales are down and inventory is up. Sales to actives ratios are plummeting and months of inventory is stacking up, at least on the detached side anyways. You can read more about that in Mid September Market Update. Here’s the sales to actives chart. Going from 52% in March (anything above 20% is a sellers market) to 14% in August. Early numbers show September sales to actives ratio will be even lower than August. But these numbers aren’t enough for some. Just the other day someone on Twitter told me average prices are up for September… Let me explain why that means nothing. Let’s look at 2008. Canada, and Vancouver prices somehow managed to basically dodge the huge financial crisis. Prices managed to drop only 14% in 2008 for REBGV according the real estate boards benchmark pricing. Prices started dropping in mid 2008, right around when sales

Steve Saretsky -

Why The Foreign Buyer Likely Won’t Return Anytime Soon Today the BC Government finally released the latest round of foreign buyer data. Yep, a 15% crash tax on foreigners has done it’s job to this point. The data showed 1,974 home sales to foreign buyers from June 10-August 1… and just 60 sales post-tax. That’s roughly a 12% drop in foreign buyers depending on how you want to spin it. Which is apparently what Christy Clark wanted, if you actually believe it. “I think it is fair to say we have had an impact. That was the impact we wanted to have.” Data Flaws Here’s one problem I do have. The numbers are pulled from the property transfers database. Most deals usually take one month to complete or more. So any deal signed at the end of August might not end up in property transfers until the end of September. Brace for these numbers to jump a bit. Despite numbers potentially jumping a bit, it’s no question there’s been a mass exodus of foreign buyers. Just see Richmond for example. The total number of transactions involving foreign nationals reached 24.7%. New data shows that number is down to a measly 1.9%. Is

Steve Saretsky -

Sales Dropping for all product across Metro Vancouver I’ve shown sales drops before in previous posts like September Sales on Pace For Record Lows. So it’s no secret there’s been a huge drop in sales. It’s also a key factor before prices can even begin to drop. Sales have to slow down, allowing inventory to start backing up. But you already knew that. I actually had no intention of putting this blog post together but a real estate research and consulting company reached out to me and asked me to pull the numbers for them. Sometimes I’m too nice I know.. I figured since i’ve already done all the work I might as well share it with you. So without further ado I present to you a break down of the recent sales declines across Metro Vancouver. Quick note, to project final September numbers I pulled the processed sales from September 1-19 and used that number to project the final number come September 30. Also if you want to know what areas the REBGV covers, see below. Detached Housing August [table id=6 /] The table shows August 2016 sales were way below 10 year averages for the month of August.

Steve Saretsky -

September Market Update Full Analysis Just the other day I was accused by a fellow Realtor that the numbers I released were ‘fear mongering’ and that I should be advising on clients on “trends” not a small 11 day sample. He was referring to my recent post September Sales on Pace for Record Lows.  Advise on trends? If I advised you on trends, which is what the REBGV MLS HPI benchmark does, then my clients would be grossly overpaying for any purchase. Following trends shows detached house prices were up in August. As I mentioned in my post Detached Housing Market Takes Heavy Blow In August prices were not up in August. In fact far from it. As seen by the announcement of the foreign buyers tax, all it takes is one day to change the real estate market. So relying on “trends” is highly irresponsible. But I digress. Below is a full break down of mid September numbers. These are pulled directly off the MLS system. If you find these numbers to be fear mongering then I suggest you look away. Detached Housing Market Sales from September 1-15 Vancouver East- 21 Vancouver West- 36 Richmond- 35 Burnaby-22 New Listings from

Steve Saretsky -

Early Numbers Show Vancouver Sales Hit 10 Year Low The much requested September numbers are here and they’re not pretty. Just over a week ago I highlighted how Detached Housing Market Takes Heavy Blow in August which also begged the question is the Condo/Townhouse market cooling? Both reports emphasized a critical reason for both buyers and sellers to keep a close eye on September. September is historically known as a busy month for Vancouver real estate. Hence why I said in my CBC interview that all eyes should be on September before jumping to any assumptions on the impact of the foreign buyers tax. Many pundits were quoted as saying “Too early to tell the impact after one month.” So here we are, almost 2 weeks into September. Is it still too early to judge? Perhaps. Interpret at your own discretion. Here are the processed sales from the Real Estate Board. These numbers are firm and will not change. Below I have compared processed sales from September 01-11 over the last ten years. September Detached Sales [table id=4 /] The table shows a significant drop in sales this September compared to 2015. Vancouver West down 51%, Vancouver East -80%, Richmond -67%, Burnaby -69%. If we compare

Steve Saretsky -

Dated Real Estate Industry Still Hoarding Information Like It’s The 90’s The often debated question; should access to sales data be made available to the public? Living in a social media world I talk to hundreds of people every day and they all want the same thing, access to sold listings. It baffles me that this data is still not available to the public. It’s 2016, we are living in the information age. You can literally google anything and get the answer (except for Canadian Real Estate sold data). The one exception, a Toronto brokerage called ‘Just Sold on MLS’ has been providing the public with sales data. As of yesterday they have temporarily shut down due to legal disputes with the Toronto Real Estate Board. You can read that article here.  But how does it even get to that point? I’m going to share some conversations I had on Twitter with REBGV President Dan Morrison. This is not to vilify Dan, it’s to show you the counter arguments and the misconceptions around sharing data. I actually want to thank Dan for his efforts with REBGV and commend him for taking a rather thankless role. The first counter argument from

Steve Saretsky -

Average Sales Price Still Matters- And it’s Dropping Rapidly I want to look at what the average sales price is doing in Vancouver real estate. We’ve all seen the media reports showing massive drops in average sales price. I’ll be the first to admit average sales price is not the most accurate way in determining the current value of homes or the current market. Which is why I’ve teamed up with UBC economist Tom Davidoff. We already determined Sales Prices Decline 8% Since June. However, average price is still very relevant and it should absolutely not be overlooked. Average sales price can be flawed on a monthly basis because it depends on what is sold that particular month. Meaning you could have a whole bunch of condos sold, and few detached houses, thus bringing down the average price. But here’s why it’s relevant. If the average price is dropping on a consistent basis it is a clear indicator that the overall composition of what’s selling is changing. Whether it means more condos are selling and fewer homes. Or fewer high end homes, and more average, lower priced homes are selling. This data can be used to speculate who is still

Steve Saretsky -

Perspective from a Chinese Investor of Vancouver Real Estate Yesterday I met with my Chinese clients who are here visiting from overseas. They usually visit for a couple weeks every September. I sold them a Vancouver condo about a year ago. I know the stereotype around foreign investors so I want to set this post up to let you know they are two absolutely amazing people. Despite our language barrier we have become excellent friends, mostly via WeChat which helps us translate. They also bought me these really nice little engrained silver Chinese bowls, which I’m not sure what to do with or how to use them. If anyone knows please share! Anyways It was great to catch up with them over lunch. We had lots to talk about, particularly their thoughts on the new foreign buyers tax, global real estate, and Chinese culture in general. What are their thoughts on the new foreign buyers tax? They tell me the 15% tax makes little difference to Chinese investors. They see it as a small fee to pay and one that won’t affect purchase decisions. However, it is not the 15% tax that worries them, it is the policy that scares

Steve Saretsky -

What’s Really Going on in The Real Estate Market? Today was an absolute whirlwind. Just wrapped up interviews with CBC, Global, and CKNW and I’m sure there will be plenty more following the release of The Real Estate Board’s monthly stats for August. As predicted the Real Estate Board put a nice tone to everything. Although the stats are accurate, the way they are portrayed in my opinion is very bias. In fact they are dangerous when the publics financial decisions are relying on the information. I’m going poke some holes in their data… Actually I’m going to drive a truck through them. Still a sellers market? Firstly, sellers absolutely do not have the upper hand right now. For detached houses it is 100% a buyers market. Across Metro Vancouver detached houses were down 45% compared to 2015. They were down 24% when you compare the typical average sales for the month of August between 2010-2014. It’s price reduction mania out there. Yes, it’s still a sellers market for condos/townhouses. But definitely not for single family homes. Read my post on Is the Condo/Townhouse market cooling? Detached Prices Increased Again? Kind of hard to believe since sales have been on

Steve Saretsky -

Attached Market Shows Minimal Signs of Slowing Yesterday I discussed how the Detached Housing Market Takes Heavy Blow in August. Today I’m going to break down what I’m personally seeing in the condo/townhouse market and what the numbers show us. I’ve talked about it before and i’ll say it again, stats are subjective. Depending on who you ask you’ll get a different answer on what is happening with the market. It also kind of worries me how disconnected some Realtors are with current market conditions, not all, but some. Yesterday I was listening to the Bigger Pockets podcast, it’s a real estate investing podcast if you’ve never heard of it. The hosts were interviewing a seasoned investor named David Gudmundsen.  David was a former Realtor and current investor who has bought and sold over 800 properties. He had a brilliant quote if you want to get the truth out of a Realtor. He said call one up and tell him “I’m not telling you whether i’m a buyer or a seller. What’s the market doing right now, should I buy or sell?” I highly recommend that podcast episode if you’re a real estate geek. But I digress. Here are your attached

Steve Saretsky -

Detached Housing Market Takes Huge Plunge in August The much anticipated August 31, 5pm cutoff for market stats has come and gone. Before we dive in let me just touch on all the counter arguments quickly. Yes, one month after the tax it is still too early to tell how much of this slow down is a direct result from the tax. As i’ve mentioned in a previous post FOMO Drives Vancouver Real Estate Market, much of this slow down appears to be from a change in local buyers psychology. Also to the online troll who wants to call this post “Chicken Little” please don’t forget my job as a Realtor is to sell you a house. Therefor it’s probably in my best interest to pretend like things are all good and rosey in the market ala Cameron Muir. (Economist of the Real Estate Board). But this isn’t about me, this is about you, the public. So without further ado here are my findings for the month of August 2016. Detached houses took a hit. In fact they didn’t just take a hit, they took a Muhammed Ali straight right knock out punch. I studied arguably the 4 biggest markets,

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Steve Saretsky -

Breakdown of the Single Family Housing Market in September So what exactly happened with the detached housing market in September? Bare with me as I write this report from my hotel in Mexico. I’m currently on a one week sabbatical, I had to upgrade the wifi just to get speeds...

Steve Saretsky -

Are Prices up or Down in Vancouver? It’s all anybody really wants to know, are real estate prices up or down? We already know sales are dropping significantly as I discussed in Analyzing Sales Drops Across The Board.  I think it should give you a pretty good idea where the...

Steve Saretsky -

Why The Foreign Buyer Likely Won’t Return Anytime Soon Today the BC Government finally released the latest round of foreign buyer data. Yep, a 15% crash tax on foreigners has done it’s job to this point. The data showed 1,974 home sales to foreign buyers from June 10-August 1… and just 60...

Steve Saretsky -

Sales Dropping for all product across Metro Vancouver I’ve shown sales drops before in previous posts like September Sales on Pace For Record Lows. So it’s no secret there’s been a huge drop in sales. It’s also a key factor before prices can even begin to drop. Sales have to...

Steve Saretsky -

September Market Update Full Analysis Just the other day I was accused by a fellow Realtor that the numbers I released were ‘fear mongering’ and that I should be advising on clients on “trends” not a small 11 day sample. He was referring to my recent post September Sales on...

Steve Saretsky -

Early Numbers Show Vancouver Sales Hit 10 Year Low The much requested September numbers are here and they’re not pretty. Just over a week ago I highlighted how Detached Housing Market Takes Heavy Blow in August which also begged the question is the Condo/Townhouse market cooling? Both reports emphasized a critical reason for both...

Steve Saretsky -

Dated Real Estate Industry Still Hoarding Information Like It’s The 90’s The often debated question; should access to sales data be made available to the public? Living in a social media world I talk to hundreds of people every day and they all want the same thing, access to sold...

Steve Saretsky -

Average Sales Price Still Matters- And it’s Dropping Rapidly I want to look at what the average sales price is doing in Vancouver real estate. We’ve all seen the media reports showing massive drops in average sales price. I’ll be the first to admit average sales price is not the...

Steve Saretsky -

Perspective from a Chinese Investor of Vancouver Real Estate Yesterday I met with my Chinese clients who are here visiting from overseas. They usually visit for a couple weeks every September. I sold them a Vancouver condo about a year ago. I know the stereotype around foreign investors so I...

Steve Saretsky -

What’s Really Going on in The Real Estate Market? Today was an absolute whirlwind. Just wrapped up interviews with CBC, Global, and CKNW and I’m sure there will be plenty more following the release of The Real Estate Board’s monthly stats for August. As predicted the Real Estate Board put...

Steve Saretsky -

Attached Market Shows Minimal Signs of Slowing Yesterday I discussed how the Detached Housing Market Takes Heavy Blow in August. Today I’m going to break down what I’m personally seeing in the condo/townhouse market and what the numbers show us. I’ve talked about it before and i’ll say it again, stats...

Steve Saretsky -

Detached Housing Market Takes Huge Plunge in August The much anticipated August 31, 5pm cutoff for market stats has come and gone. Before we dive in let me just touch on all the counter arguments quickly. Yes, one month after the tax it is still too early to tell how...

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The Saretsky Report. December 2022