Preliminary Analysis Shows Sales Price Decline in Metro Vancouver Real Estate Today I’m happy to release the very first set of data from myself and Tom Davidoff. Tom is a very well respected UBC housing economist and one of the go to guys on the Vancouver housing crisis. We’ve teamed up before, like this interview here on CBC.  Tom is very smart with numbers so I let him take the reigns. I worked together with him to help pull the MLS data that is available to me and provided some insights with how sales are reported, etc. As per Jason Billingsley than man behind the infamous Zolo stats, he discovered that 50% of sales take longer than 10 days to report to the Real Estate Board. So although a sale may have been signed and accepted on August 15, numbers show that 50% of those sales won’t be reported until upwards of August 25. Most likely due to lazy Realtors, understaffed offices, or Realtors leaving listings active to attract more buyer leads for their own business. So using some algorithms and coding we pulled all the MLS sales from all of 2014 to 2016. We aimed to ask: for an

Why Your Neighbours Price Reduction Has a Ripple Effect The Vancouver real estate market has changed drastically over the last couple months. We used to see multiple offers on basically every property, now you’re lucky if it sells (for detached houses anyways). Despite the dramatic slow down in sales which I’ve talked about previously in articles such as Demystifying the latest Vancouver Market Stats and Staggering Numbers Show Impact of Foreign Buyer Tax sales prices remain relatively the same. At least to the untrained eye… The price drops have already begun. In fact they started in areas like Tsawwassen & Ladner months ago. Now they are becoming more and more evident in other areas. Including much of Metro Vancouver. I tweeted the staggering price increases of areas like Tsawwassen and North Delta which saw the biggest price gains year over year. When I tweeted these numbers back in June it showed Tsawwassen detached homes had a price gain of 48% year over year compared to June of 2015. North Delta had a 47% price increase vs June of 2015. These numbers were pulled using Median sales price from REBGV (Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver). Now let’s look at July stats

Who’s Market Stats Can We Trust? What in the world is going on with the latest Vancouver Market stats? REBGV is saying one thing and Zolo (a real estate brokerage) is saying another. A recent blog post from the infamous Garth Turner says the REBGV is misleading the public and Zolo should be relied upon. Alright so let’s break this down. First off, everyone interprets the stats differently based on their world views and opinions. All the guys hoping for the bubble to burst view the stats how they want. Twisting and turning words and data any way possible so they can prove to everyone they’re right. The same can be said for the REBGV. Of course they’re not going to predict doomsday on a public release. They have homes to sell! So who do we really turn to for reliable stats? Don’t get me wrong I like Garth Turner, he offers some valuable financial suggestions but he’s also a huge advocate of the bubble and has been predicting it forever. Alright now that we have that out of the way, here’s what I’m seeing. First for REBGV stats which covers the included areas, Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, West Vancouver, North

One Pacific Resales Flood Market- Struggling to Sell One Pacific, located at 68 Smithe Street next to the Cambie Bridge recently approved final occupancy. The condo development by Concord Pacific has finally completed and with that came a flood of new listings to the market as seen when most buildings complete. You would think this would be your classic blueprint to riches in today’s Vancouver real estate market. Invest in a pre sale condo and in as little as a couple months later you assign it for profit. Or in this case, wait until closing and make an even bigger killing as seen with Telus Garden Resales Explode.  However, this has not been the case for investors at One Pacific. There are currently 33 active/sold listings since the first one surfaced on July 16, 2016. Of those 33 only 3 have actually sold. There are some which are awaiting subject removal however many are sitting stagnant. Many have now been on the market for 3 weeks. It is a beautiful building and the condo market downtown remains hot despite Staggering Number Show Impact of Foreign Buyer Tax. The average asking price for One Pacific resales hovers around $1100/square foot. A hefty

How Much of the Vancouver Market is Driven by Fomo? I know right off the hop this title is going to ruffle some feathers. Especially those who point the finger at foreign buyers and better yet, foreign capital. Now don’t get me wrong I’ve mentioned before that I’m all for taxing foreign capital I even think taxing foreign buyers is better than nothing. As I mentioned in my post What To Make of the Vancouver Foreign Buyer Tax.  However, foreign buyer aside this market has gone bananas with or without them (especially with them) I’ve witnessed it first hand, it’s crazy! I have friends that are making under $20/hour and they’re talking about buying a place. They have no money, heck they can barely afford their beer league hockey fees. “I’ll just put 10% down, or whatever.” I have to pull them aside and bring them back to reality. Much like Tulipmania. The story back in the 1600’s where the price of a Tulip was driven by human psychology, the fear of missing out. Prices went up and up on a Tulip flower and everyone wanted to cash in. The price of a tulip exceeded the annual income of a

Impact of Foreign Buyer Tax Evident after First Week The shocking announcement of the Foreign buyer tax last week dominated headlines last week. Although it had it’s many flaws as I pointed out in my post What to Make of the Vancouver Foreign Buyer Tax, the impact of foreign buyer tax remains to be seen. What I witnessed last week was absolute mayhem. The tax caught everyone off guard and left buyers, sellers, lawyers, Realtors, developers scrambling to close deals before the August 02 deadline. While I held my breath for previous deals I had under contract thankfully none got derailed. However, I had many fellow Realtors tell me they had to change dates on several deals. I received a call from a developer in which one of my clients bought into asking me if they were going to back out. There were posts on Craigslist welcoming foreign buyers and offering them a discount. Much of this adding up to a situation where the Foreign buyer tax could cripple local sellers. A week later, with the dust settling, the numbers are finally out. I pulled up the sales from July 25-July 31. One full week of sales since the announcement

Why The Foreign Buyer Tax Will Punish Local Sellers The overall consensus after the 15% Vancouver Foreign Buyer Tax was announced was a sense of relief from locals who have been desperate for the government to act. If you’re still not sure how to feel read What To Make of the Vancouver Foreign Buyer Tax.  Soon after the announcement though president of the Real Estate Board Dan Morrison came out and slammed foreign buyer tax.  Dan made some really good points, specifically pointing out that current deals which were slated for completion after August 02 deadline should be exempt. “The only people calling me more than the media today are realtors upset about this because they’ve got clients that are B.C. residents and voters that are going to get hit hard by this if their transactions aren’t exempt.” He went on to say “If they did, that puts the seller in a very difficult situation because based on the strength of that contract, they’ve gone out and committed to buying another house. If the buyer defaults on their house, they don’t have the funds necessarily to go and buy their new home. So you could get this chain reaction of contracts that

A Day For The History Books- Foreign Buyer Tax Introduced I was sitting in my office when I heard the news. A CBC reporter called me to ask what I thought. It was the first I was hearing of it so I really couldn’t give him an answer until I read it for myself. A 15% tax on all foreign buyers starting August 02, 2016. The Metro Vancouver foreign buyer tax does not target foreign capital and the many loopholes buyers can use to purchase property. None the less it seemed like a giant step forward from a government who denied the issue entirely only several months ago. A minute later a disgruntled Realtor came barging into our computer area and said ‘Can you believe it, what the hell are they thinking?’ So I guess not everyone is happy about the new tax. In what seemed like a huge win for local Vancouverites, how could anyone not be happy about it? A few reasons I heard today: The government is going to tank the market and kill the economy. Restricting foreigners is prejudice and we are a welcoming society. Vancouver has always been expensive, if you can’t afford it then

Have Airbnb Investments in Vancouver Reached Problematic Levels? I want to say it’s funny but it’s really not. Only because I’ve noticed many Vancouverites who complain about Airbnb taking up valuable rental supply in Vancouver are the same ones who will use Airbnb on their next vacation. I understand the argument from both sides. Airbnb is a drag on local housing and the economy, but my goodness is it not an incredible option when traveling? How do we find a happy medium? I recently used it to host my cousins stag in Whistler. Where else can you rent a 3 bedroom condo all to yourself, host a stag for under $100 per person and not get booted. I also used it last year for my mens league hockey tournament in Kelowna. We rented a mansion right on the lake for $1200 a night. It worked out to be cheaper than booking hotel rooms for everyone. We were able to get everyone under one roof, had some amazing times, cranked some music, bonded as a team and undoubtedly won the tournament. It was an unforgettable experience that wouldn’t have been possible without Airbnb. So what’s with all the hate for Airbnb?

Lik N2 Ice Cream Vancouver’s First Nitrogen Ice Cream Some things are tough to improve upon. Vancouver, for example, is an unbeatable place to live and visit. Perhaps one way to elevate a gorgeous world-class city like this one is with a whole new take on one of the world’s best indulgences: ice cream! Lik N2 Ice Cream is the first liquid nitrogen ice cream shop in Vancouver. Many reviews are in, and the general consensus is that this unique frozen dessert that comes with a syringe full of yummy deliciousness is truly a can’t-miss treat. Even with recent additions of other ice cream shops, Lik N2 Ice Cream is more than worthy of an abundant welcome. What is Liquid Nitrogen Ice Cream? Many people are probably compelled to ask, “What is liquid nitrogen ice cream?” It sounds more like a science project than a sweet treat. Actually, the fare at Lik N2 Ice Cream is indisputable evidence that the kitchen is a great place to apply scientific techniques. To answer the question, liquid nitrogen ice cream utilizes a super-cooling, rapid freeze reaction process. The result of using liquid nitrogen is that creamy ice cream is made in mere seconds.

Telus Garden Resales Explode, Emphasizing Issues with New Supply. The much anticipated Telus Garden building, located at 777 Richards Street has finally opened it’s doors. Buyers of the project have been given the green light to move in and as a result Telus Garden resales have soared. Since the residential condo building allowed it’s buyers to move in less than a month ago there have been a plethora of new listings up for sale. Adding to the large number already assigned for profits over the last few years. It raises the question, how many people who buy pre sale condos actually move into them upon completion? How many are buying them purely for speculative reasons? Personally I have no issue with people assigning contracts and flipping them for a profit. It is their investment they can do whatever they please. However, here’s the issue I do have. The provincial government continues to insist on creating more and more supply thinking it’s the solution to the housing crisis. It is not, let me explain. There are a total of 428 units in the Telus Garden building. Up to this point 68/428 have been either assigned, sold upon move in date, or

Are Prices Going Up or Down? Why I stopped Predicting Everyone loves predicting Vancouver real estate prices. It’s become a hot topic at any social gathering. I found myself predicting prices and market conditions it was like an emotional roller coaster. I soon realized that was a lose lose. Here’s the problem. Being a Vancouver Realtor I have clients and friends ask me almost every single day, ‘what do you think, are prices going to go up or down? Is now a good time to buy or should I wait?’ A year ago I would have offered you my opinion and that would have been to hold tight on buying unless you really needed to and had the means to do so. I remember I had a client wanting to buy a 2 bedroom condo in the West End. I told him he should consider waiting if he was in no rush. It was an investment after all. But he insisted to go through. This was in September, 2015. When multiple offers started to happen in the Vancouver condo market. I remember thinking man this is crazy, multiple offers on condos in Vancouver. Realtors used to joke how crazy the