Condo’s Now Driving Metro Vancouver’s Real Estate Market

I’ve been highlighting for quite some time just how segmented the market really is. It’s why it bothers me when some real estate reports group all three markets (Single family, townhouse, and condos) and spew out one single number. The reality is that the detached market has taken the brunt of the correction.

I’ve also argued in a previous post (Are we in Denial?) that there is a strong likelihood the correction will eventually trickle it’s way through the market as it did previously on the way up. Perhaps that’s all speculation at this point but the sales numbers indicate no market segment is going untouched.

Regardless, as it stands right now, there’s a new conductor of the real estate gravy train. The condo market has taken over and is pushing full steam ahead in an effort to keep this train rolling.

Below you’ll see a breakdown of sales composition by segment. Back in January, 2016 condo and single family homes had an equal share of the market at 43% of total sales across REBGV. By December 2016 condos were responsible for 54% of all sales, while single family homes plopped to just 32%.

As you can see condos have been taking a larger and larger share of the market since March, 2016 right around when the detached market was hitting it’s peak. This is a trend that appears to be continuing through January 2017.

However, this is not to be confused with an increase in condo sales. As of December 2016 condo sales were down 25% year over year but a collapse in detached sales (down 52%) has left the market vulnerable, leaving condos to pick up the slack. Townhouse share of the market remains relatively flat. Will keep my eyes on this moving forward.


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