Who’s Market Stats Can We Trust?
What in the world is going on with the latest Vancouver Market stats? REBGV is saying one thing and Zolo (a real estate brokerage) is saying another. A recent blog post from the infamous Garth Turner says the REBGV is misleading the public and Zolo should be relied upon.
Alright so let’s break this down.
First off, everyone interprets the stats differently based on their world views and opinions. All the guys hoping for the bubble to burst view the stats how they want. Twisting and turning words and data any way possible so they can prove to everyone they’re right.
The same can be said for the REBGV. Of course they’re not going to predict doomsday on a public release. They have homes to sell!
So who do we really turn to for reliable stats? Don’t get me wrong I like Garth Turner, he offers some valuable financial suggestions but he’s also a huge advocate of the bubble and has been predicting it forever.
Alright now that we have that out of the way, here’s what I’m seeing.
First for REBGV stats which covers the included areas, Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, New Westminster, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and South Delta.
All Property types (detached, condo, townhouse)
- Sales down 18.4% in July 2016 vs July 2015 (trending downward since April)
- Median Sales Price up 12.5% in July 2016 vs July 2015 (has been on downward trend since May 2016.)
All property types Vancouver
- Sales down 25.2% compared to July 2015. (Trending downward since April, 2016)
- Median up 24% compared to July 2015. (Trending downward since it peaked in May, 2016 at 941,000. Now sits at 805,000.
Vancouver Detached housing
- Sales down 25.6% compared to July 2015. (Trending downwards since May, 2016)
- Median sales price up 27.4% Compared to July 2015. Peaked in April at 2,555,000 and now sits at 2,243,000
- Sales down 24.6% compared to July 2015. (Trending downwards since it’s peak in March)
- Median sales price recorded a new high in July 2016 at $622,000. But basically levelling off since May, 2016.
- Sales down 30.8%. Has basically levelled since March, 2016.
- Median Sales price peaked in May but has stayed relatively the same since.
Currently for the month of August, the median sales price of a Vancouver detached home sits at $2,000,000. As per Realtor MLS system. Sales are recorded the date the contract is signed not when it closes. Because we are only halfway through August and many sales have yet to trickle through this number is very preliminary.
With that being said median sales price last month was $2,062,500 according to Realtor MLS system. However REBGV stats reported the median sales price last month as $2,243,000. This is because the board reports their numbers based off when deals are processed. Not when contracts are actually signed and agreed upon (which is more accurate of current market conditions).
So are Zolo numbers accurate?
They are reporting average sale price of 1.1 million for Vancouver this month. Down 18.3% this month alone. But are they using average or median to determine that? I’m assuming they are also including detached and attached.
If they were to use the most accurate median sales price the number it shows me on the MLS Realtor system is $1,297,500.
As you can see there are some discrepancies and everyone seems to determine data slightly different.
I’ll summarize this post quickly for you:
Regardless of who’s data you’re looking at; sales are down everywhere and trending downwards. Prices for detached housing are also trending downwards. However, prices for condos and townhouses remain steady despite a downward trend on sales.